Weather Guru Accurate Weather Forecasts 1 7

If the forecast is correct, the score is a '1,' and as the models become less accurate, the score falls. A 'zero' would be no better than a complete random guess. Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC. Long-Range Weather Forecast for 2021. See long range weather forecasts for the next 60 days from The Old Farmer's Almanac! Our long range forecasts can be used to make more informed decisions about future plans that depend on the weather, from vacations and weddings to sporting events and outdoor activities. To see long term forecasts for the. Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for Guru with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com.

Monday, February 22nd 2021, 10:50 am - With Groundhog Day coming up, is it even worth listening to this rodent cabal? We took a look at 5 groundhogs in North America to see if they're gurus, or frauds.

Once again, on February 2, all eyes will be on groundhogs across North America in the desperate hope of an early spring forecast - and in fear of another six weeks of frozen misery.

Hope is all very well and good .. but really, can we trust these would-be prognosticators? Aside from questionable accuracy, some of them have some shady backgrounds.

Here's a look at five of them.

PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL

You know you've made it when you've been on Oprah, met Ronald Reagan and co-starred with Bill Murray.

Phil is by far the most famous groundhog, with people hanging onto every wiggle of his little groundhog nose. Take a look at the throng awaiting his prediction a year ago:

But the truth is, while this little ritual may occasionally warm the heart, you're better off ignoring him altogether.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the federal U.S. weather guys), in a century-plus of forecasts, Phil predicted six more weeks of winter 101 times, an early spring 17 times (there's also nine years of missing data. Smells like a cover-up). And according to the number-crunchers at StormFax.com, he's usually only accurate 39 per cent of the time. After 1969, the rate drops to 36 per cent (according to Live Science).

That's an astonishingly bad record, but the furry fraud has mostly escaped accountability for his grievous errors time and time again .. until he bungled the 2013 forecast.

Contrary to his wobbly weather skills, there was NOT an early spring that year. Most people would just comfort themselves by looking up recipes for fricasee'd groundhog. Not Butler County, Ohio. Their county prosecutor demanded justice by suing Phil - and recommending a sentence of death.

We, uh, think that's a bit much (then again, we've never had to live through an Ohio winter), but Phil managed to beat the rap. His handler took the fall, claiming Phil had indeed predicted six more weeks of winter, but had been misinterpreted due to the handler's rusty groundhog-ese.

It was enough to melt the prosecutor's heart. Not ours, though. Next time, rodent. Next time.

GENERAL BEAUREGARD LEE

This Atlanta-area groundhog is considerably less well known than Phil, and he's not happy about that.

It's at the point where the good general, who famously lives in a mini-mansion where he claims to be in touch with the elements, regularly calls Phil out on his inaccuracy.

First off, he claims to be more qualified, proudly possessing the impressive and totally legit-sounding titles of Doctor of Weather Prognostication from the University of Georgia and Doctor of Southern Groundology from Georgia State University, according to the Yellow River Game Ranch. Then he straight up claims a 90-some per cent accuracy rating.

Some meteorological trash-talking is par for the course, but political fact-checking website PolitiFact actually decided to weigh in on this feud between the proud southerner and that yankee punk.

No, really, they totally did this. They looked at data from 2001 to 2010, and found Phil accurately predicted an early start to the nation's spring 30 per cent of the time. The general managed 60 per cent.

Beauregard Lee also got Atlanta's weather right 50 per cent of the time, while Phil did the same for Punxsutawney only 40 per cent.

Well, the stats are the stats, but the Beau's record is still lousy, and he's not immune from getting it badly, badly wrong - like in 1993, when he predicted an early spring, and March brought one of the most powerful winter storms in U.S. history.

STATEN ISLAND CHUCK

This New York-based seasonal oracle actually has a decent-ish track record, according to his handlers at the Staten Island Zoo.

They reckon 26 out of his past 32 predictions panned out over a given period (about an 81 per cent hit rate), but his street cred is sharply diminished by the fact he assaulted a New York mayor - and may have been whacked by another one.

The out-of-control Chuck had a rocky relationship with former mayor Michael Bloomberg, to the point of biting his hand hard enough to puncture the glove:

That was back in 2009, and their working rapport didn't improve much, by reports.

Still, it's miles ahead of what happened when the current incumbent, Bill de Blasio, met the critter (note the super-thick industrial-grade gloves):

Yep. The mayor of the U.S.' largest city totally dropped the groundhog - which was found dead a week later from internal injuries.

Then it got weirder.

Not only did the zoo claim the injuries were more recent than de Blasio's bungle, it wasn't even Chuck. He was replaced on Groundhog Day by a stand-in, Charlotte, apparently out of fear Chuck would renew his mayor-mangling ways with the new guy.

Alleged accuracy aside, we feel Chuck loses points for bad behaviour and shady deceptions.

WIARTON WILLIE

Speaking of groundhog-related scandal, look no further than Ontario's very own Bruce Peninsula, home to Wiarton Willie.

All eyes will be on this mild-mannered fella when he emerges on Groundhog Day. We had trouble tracking down his actual track record (we, uh, weren't confident of getting a reasonable figure from his handlers) but the Canadian Encyclopedia says groundhogs in Canada have more-or-less a 37 per cent accuracy rate.

So really, Willie's no more fraudulent than his American counterparts. That's not why he made this list.

No, he earned his spot due to that one time he died and his handlers botched the funeral.

One of current Willie's ancestors was found dead in his burrow just before Groundhog Day 1999, at the reported age of 22 years old. Distraught, his handlers arranged a funeral for him, which the CBC assures us included the face-up Willie with pennies over his eyes and clutching a carrot.

Charming. Touching. Lies. All lies.

Turns out that Willie was a fake. The real Willie was found too badly decomposed for public display, so they used a taxidermied stand-in instead.

Most Accurate Weather Forecasts

We will grant that the betrayal was neither Willie's fault, nor that of his successor, but the apparent infrastructure of deception that surrounds our country's most famous weather-hog doesn't instill us with confidence.

SHUBENACADIE SAM

In fact, if you're serious about getting your fake-forecast fix as quick as you can, you actually can't do better than Shubenacadie Sam.

His home province of Nova Scotia sits in the Atlantic Time zone, one hour ahead of Eastern Time, and with few (if any) high-profile hogs in Newfoundland (whose time zone is famously half an hour removed), Sam always gets the first crack at bolstering or dashing the hopes of a winter-weary nation.

@Tim_Bousquet [pithy comeback]

@Tim_Bousquet Spring is a state of mind! #PhilosophicalGroundhog

Weather Guru Accurate Weather Forecasts 1 7 12

Alas, that nifty perk is not enough to take away the shame he shares with most groundhogs: He's just not all that good at predicting the weather, although he is better than the Canadian average.

We'll turn to the Canadian Encyclopedia, which doesn't have objective stats for Shubenacadie, but does keep them for Halifax. And in Halifax, it seems, groundhogs have a 50 per cent chance of seeing their shadows, but only a 42 per cent accuracy rate.

Groundhog day is Tuesday, February 2. We'll see what the furry cabal has to say this time.

If the forecast is correct, the score is a '1,' and as the models become less accurate, the score falls. A 'zero' would be no better than a complete random guess. Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC. Long-Range Weather Forecast for 2021. See long range weather forecasts for the next 60 days from The Old Farmer's Almanac! Our long range forecasts can be used to make more informed decisions about future plans that depend on the weather, from vacations and weddings to sporting events and outdoor activities. To see long term forecasts for the. Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for Guru with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com.

Monday, February 22nd 2021, 10:50 am - With Groundhog Day coming up, is it even worth listening to this rodent cabal? We took a look at 5 groundhogs in North America to see if they're gurus, or frauds.

Once again, on February 2, all eyes will be on groundhogs across North America in the desperate hope of an early spring forecast - and in fear of another six weeks of frozen misery.

Hope is all very well and good .. but really, can we trust these would-be prognosticators? Aside from questionable accuracy, some of them have some shady backgrounds.

Here's a look at five of them.

PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL

You know you've made it when you've been on Oprah, met Ronald Reagan and co-starred with Bill Murray.

Phil is by far the most famous groundhog, with people hanging onto every wiggle of his little groundhog nose. Take a look at the throng awaiting his prediction a year ago:

But the truth is, while this little ritual may occasionally warm the heart, you're better off ignoring him altogether.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the federal U.S. weather guys), in a century-plus of forecasts, Phil predicted six more weeks of winter 101 times, an early spring 17 times (there's also nine years of missing data. Smells like a cover-up). And according to the number-crunchers at StormFax.com, he's usually only accurate 39 per cent of the time. After 1969, the rate drops to 36 per cent (according to Live Science).

That's an astonishingly bad record, but the furry fraud has mostly escaped accountability for his grievous errors time and time again .. until he bungled the 2013 forecast.

Contrary to his wobbly weather skills, there was NOT an early spring that year. Most people would just comfort themselves by looking up recipes for fricasee'd groundhog. Not Butler County, Ohio. Their county prosecutor demanded justice by suing Phil - and recommending a sentence of death.

We, uh, think that's a bit much (then again, we've never had to live through an Ohio winter), but Phil managed to beat the rap. His handler took the fall, claiming Phil had indeed predicted six more weeks of winter, but had been misinterpreted due to the handler's rusty groundhog-ese.

It was enough to melt the prosecutor's heart. Not ours, though. Next time, rodent. Next time.

GENERAL BEAUREGARD LEE

This Atlanta-area groundhog is considerably less well known than Phil, and he's not happy about that.

It's at the point where the good general, who famously lives in a mini-mansion where he claims to be in touch with the elements, regularly calls Phil out on his inaccuracy.

First off, he claims to be more qualified, proudly possessing the impressive and totally legit-sounding titles of Doctor of Weather Prognostication from the University of Georgia and Doctor of Southern Groundology from Georgia State University, according to the Yellow River Game Ranch. Then he straight up claims a 90-some per cent accuracy rating.

Some meteorological trash-talking is par for the course, but political fact-checking website PolitiFact actually decided to weigh in on this feud between the proud southerner and that yankee punk.

No, really, they totally did this. They looked at data from 2001 to 2010, and found Phil accurately predicted an early start to the nation's spring 30 per cent of the time. The general managed 60 per cent.

Beauregard Lee also got Atlanta's weather right 50 per cent of the time, while Phil did the same for Punxsutawney only 40 per cent.

Well, the stats are the stats, but the Beau's record is still lousy, and he's not immune from getting it badly, badly wrong - like in 1993, when he predicted an early spring, and March brought one of the most powerful winter storms in U.S. history.

STATEN ISLAND CHUCK

This New York-based seasonal oracle actually has a decent-ish track record, according to his handlers at the Staten Island Zoo.

They reckon 26 out of his past 32 predictions panned out over a given period (about an 81 per cent hit rate), but his street cred is sharply diminished by the fact he assaulted a New York mayor - and may have been whacked by another one.

The out-of-control Chuck had a rocky relationship with former mayor Michael Bloomberg, to the point of biting his hand hard enough to puncture the glove:

That was back in 2009, and their working rapport didn't improve much, by reports.

Still, it's miles ahead of what happened when the current incumbent, Bill de Blasio, met the critter (note the super-thick industrial-grade gloves):

Yep. The mayor of the U.S.' largest city totally dropped the groundhog - which was found dead a week later from internal injuries.

Then it got weirder.

Not only did the zoo claim the injuries were more recent than de Blasio's bungle, it wasn't even Chuck. He was replaced on Groundhog Day by a stand-in, Charlotte, apparently out of fear Chuck would renew his mayor-mangling ways with the new guy.

Alleged accuracy aside, we feel Chuck loses points for bad behaviour and shady deceptions.

WIARTON WILLIE

Speaking of groundhog-related scandal, look no further than Ontario's very own Bruce Peninsula, home to Wiarton Willie.

All eyes will be on this mild-mannered fella when he emerges on Groundhog Day. We had trouble tracking down his actual track record (we, uh, weren't confident of getting a reasonable figure from his handlers) but the Canadian Encyclopedia says groundhogs in Canada have more-or-less a 37 per cent accuracy rate.

So really, Willie's no more fraudulent than his American counterparts. That's not why he made this list.

No, he earned his spot due to that one time he died and his handlers botched the funeral.

One of current Willie's ancestors was found dead in his burrow just before Groundhog Day 1999, at the reported age of 22 years old. Distraught, his handlers arranged a funeral for him, which the CBC assures us included the face-up Willie with pennies over his eyes and clutching a carrot.

Charming. Touching. Lies. All lies.

Turns out that Willie was a fake. The real Willie was found too badly decomposed for public display, so they used a taxidermied stand-in instead.

Most Accurate Weather Forecasts

We will grant that the betrayal was neither Willie's fault, nor that of his successor, but the apparent infrastructure of deception that surrounds our country's most famous weather-hog doesn't instill us with confidence.

SHUBENACADIE SAM

In fact, if you're serious about getting your fake-forecast fix as quick as you can, you actually can't do better than Shubenacadie Sam.

His home province of Nova Scotia sits in the Atlantic Time zone, one hour ahead of Eastern Time, and with few (if any) high-profile hogs in Newfoundland (whose time zone is famously half an hour removed), Sam always gets the first crack at bolstering or dashing the hopes of a winter-weary nation.

@Tim_Bousquet [pithy comeback]

@Tim_Bousquet Spring is a state of mind! #PhilosophicalGroundhog

Weather Guru Accurate Weather Forecasts 1 7 12

Alas, that nifty perk is not enough to take away the shame he shares with most groundhogs: He's just not all that good at predicting the weather, although he is better than the Canadian average.

We'll turn to the Canadian Encyclopedia, which doesn't have objective stats for Shubenacadie, but does keep them for Halifax. And in Halifax, it seems, groundhogs have a 50 per cent chance of seeing their shadows, but only a 42 per cent accuracy rate.

Groundhog day is Tuesday, February 2. We'll see what the furry cabal has to say this time.

AN ORIGIN YOU NEED TO KNOW TO UNDERSTAND THIS TRADITION

When it comes to checking your weather forecast, which weather service provider should you trust most?

For most people, AccuWeather, The Weather Channel, and Weather Underground are helpful. According to a study by the independent ForecastWatch, all three of these weather apps have a history of getting correct the nation's one- to five-day high temperatures—that is, they consistently forecast within three degrees of accuracy.

That said, finding the most accurate weather forecast for you is not always as simple as relying on the reputations of popular weather service providers. Here are some of the reasons why and how you can find one you can trust.

Why One Size Does Not Fit All

Keep in mind, the weather apps listed above are among the best for many people, but not necessarily for all. There are a number of variables that affect a service's accuracy.

One reason why the 'best' weather service providers may not work for you is that your location may be too localized. Most forecasts are generated for major metropolitan areas across the U.S, so if you live along city outskirts or in a rural area, it is possible that your hyper-local weather may not be captured. As more companies allow users to share real-time weather updates via their mobile devices—referred to as weather crowd-sourcing—this data gap may become less of a hindrance.

Another reason a weather service provider's forecasts may (or may not) be reliable has to do with how that organization arrives at their forecasts in your area—each provider has a unique recipe for doing so. In general, they all largely base their forecasts on the computer models provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But after that, there is no standard formula. Highland 2 0 5 – powerful straightforward screenwriting appropriate. Some services base their weather predictions solely on these computer models; others use a mix of computers and human meteorologist skills, with some gut instinct sprinkled in.

There are situations where computers do a better job at forecasting, but in others, accuracy improves when a human professional gets involved. This is why predictive accuracy varies from location to location and from week to week.

Which Service Is Most Accurate for You?

If you're curious to know which major weather providers give the most accurate forecasts for your area, try using ForecastAdvisor. The website has you enter your zip code and will then show you how closely forecasts from The Weather Channel, WeatherBug, AccuWeather, Weather Underground, the National Weather Service, and other providers matched the actual weather observed for your area over the last month and year. This will help you find the most accurate weather forecast for you.

Is Your Forecast Always Wrong?

After consulting ForcastAdvisor, have you been surprised to see that the highly ranked services are ones that often get it wrong? Don't be so quick to blame your weather provider—an accuracy issue for you may not actually be caused by poor forecasting by them. Instead, it has to do with where the weather station itself is located and how often the app (or your device) updates.

For instance, you may be far away from the closest weather station. Most observations used by weather forecasts and apps come from airports across the U.S. If you are 10 miles from the closest airport, your forecast may say there's light rain because there is precipitation near the airport, but it could be dry at your location. Big fish audio hypnotic trapsoul kontakt download free.

In some cases, the weather observations may not have updated yet. Most weather observations are taken hourly, so if it's raining at 10 a.m but not at 10:50 a.m, your current observation may simply be old and no longer applicable. You should check your refresh time, too.

Hate Weather Apps Entirely?

Weather Guru Accurate Weather Forecasts 1 7 Days

If you've been let down by weather apps one too many times and have given up on them, all hope is not lost for knowing what to expect when you walk outside. If you want the most up-to-date picture of what's happening weatherwise, check your local weather radar. This tool should update automatically every few minutes.

Weather Guru Accurate Weather Forecasts 1 7 20

1. 'Analysis of Combined One- to FiveDay-Out Global Temperature Forecasts, January-June 2016.' ForecastWatch.com, Nov. 2016.